Prediction: Obama takes Texas, Vermont, RI; Clinton takes Ohio
We thought that we would weigh in with our own predictions for today’s Democratic presidential primaries.
Although most pundits call Texas “too close to call”, we believe this is due to the modeling that is being used in the polling surveys. Simply put, if 25% of Latinos are expected to vote for Hillary and Latinos comprised 50% of the voting block in the last primary, then most pollsters would put 12.5% in for Hillary this time.
What if the percent of Latinos doubled in today’s election? Or blacks? or college kids? This is what is happening.
The voting dynamic of this election is much different than recent elections. The appeal for Obama is almost cult-like. We haven’t seen anything like this since the days of JFK and RFK. It is this dynamic that makes traditional polling surveys inaccurate.
During a close primary election, the “cult” edge goes to Obama.
We see clear victories for him in Texas, Vermont, and RI. Ohio is too hard to tell. Hillary had a large, strong presence in the state before Obama began his push.
Watch the undecided voters in Ohio, if they break for Obama, it could be lights out for Hillary.
We say could be, because no one can predict if she’ll finally give up or continue to drag this out.
