On to 2008!
The first day after the midterm election is ALSO the first day of the next presidential campaign. Welcome to Campaign for 2008! To that end and by request, I have been doing some thinking about who might actually be in the field on either side for the top spot. Here’s the handicapping I’ve come up with for now.
Today, on the Republican side, in no particular order:
–Jeb Bush. People have been speculating about him for some time. He’s smarter than his little brother, he’s better with the Hispanics (who the Republicans lost their inroads with this past November) and…well, the Bush name is known. I think, however, with little brother’s ratings in the toilet, he will need to wait a while. Let’s think about him again when we need to work on ‘12.
–Rudi Giuliani. We know if nothing else the man is good in a crisis, something that might be rather comforting by the time we get around to ‘08. He can appeal to a moderate Democrat, as he’s pro-choice and doesn’t really care all that much on many of the hot-button Religious Right issues. On the other hand, that won’t really get him the votes of the Religious Right, and let’s face it, the man is kind of a Nazi. He brought law and order to New York, but did so with an iron grip, and he hasn’t really indicated any love of civil liberties. I think that Giuliani would be a powerful force on the ticket, but only as a vice-presidential contender.
–Mike Rounds in South Dakota: dark horse candidate worth watching. If nothing else, he has all the religious right backing that Giuliani wouldn’t.
–Mitt Romney: Frankly, I don’t know that we’re ready for a Mormon president. Unfortunately, when you say “Mormon”, people still have a knee-jerk reaction of thinking “polygamy,” possibly followed by “Salt Lake City” “racists” and “bizarre cult-like origins”. That, and despite his conservative credentials, on his watch in Massachusetts they repealed the Blue Laws and made gay marriage legal. It’s not such a good track record. He’ll run, but I think he’ll be done before Iowa.
–John “The Maverick” McCain. Perennial candidate and constant source of hope for the part of the Republican Party currently embarrassed about the Republican President. Appeals to moderates on civil liberties despite some not so moderate views (for instance on abortion), able to roll out the war-hero banner, and purports to be a federalist. Will ’08 be his year? Maybe!
–Newt Gingrich. I didn’t even know that the man was exploring the idea, but apparently he is. The architect and face of the Republican Revolution, author of the Contract with America, and former speaker of the house has name recognition and political credentials. He’s appealed to the swing voters before, and he may again. If he decides to have a go at it, he could be a significant force in the primaries. I don’t think he’d actually win the nomination, but he could certainly be a spoiler.
I understand that the midterms were said to have ended the political aspirations of both George Allen from Virginia and Rick Santorum (which doesn’t lose me a bit of sleep, personally – I called up family in Pennsylvania and congratulated them on getting riid of Rick). Given the folks we currently have, I think a McCain/Giuliani ticket would be the most successful (and be really, really frightening to me personally) as it would have the most appeal to swing voters and even moderate and mildly hawkish Democrats. I also suspect that they wouldn’t get the support from the religious portion of the Republican base to make the nomination. McCain/Gingrich might have more traction, and Bush/Romney might have an outside chance. While I think that there is certainly room for new people to take the field for the GOP, I would not be shocked to see the ticket come off this list.
