BeyondGenius.com

…Was convincing the world he didn’t exist.”  This statement speaks to a lack of fear and the terrifying reality of consequences.  It’s an apt way to talk about the pearl-clutching press about soft Republican polling numbers for the upcoming mid-term elections.  Even beset by scandal, there’s danger in underestimating them. 

            Congress has traditionally been Democrat.  (There’s actual political theory why that is, by the way.  It has to do with the focus of the Democrats as a populist party which makes them excellent as legislators but hurts them in the executive branch.)  The Republican Revolution during the Clinton administration was just that – revolution.  It was also the result of a built-up rise in Republicans as the big-tent party assisted by Clinton’s move of the Democrats to the middle, and a response to the perceived corruption that went along with their long-standing legislative power. 

The Republicans have proved to be as susceptible to accusations of graft as their counterparts, and just as likely to be able to find themselves in sex-and-power based scandals.  They’re trying desperately to maintain control (and in some cases, their jobs, period).  Sadly, their polling is abysmal and getting worse and the general mood of the people is against them.  Now they’ve got a Representative sending salacious email and IMs to teenage boys.  They can’t hope to win.

Or can they?  By publicizing the hopelessness of the Republican Congressional cause, two aims are met: getting out what remains of the faithful (the Republican faithful, not necessarily the Religious Right – though, them too) and making Democratic voters complacent.  Democrats have been in “mad as hell and not going to take it anymore” mode for several years now, and it looks like they might finally pick up some steam.  Blunting the power of their anger power with complacency can be more than enough to tip the electoral scales.  A Democrat who doesn’t vote because they consider the outcome a fait accompli is a vote closer the Republicans come to winning. 

The press gets frothy about the idea of the Democrats taking over one or both houses of Congress, but just how likely is that?  Both houses have been gerrymandered over the years (under the power of both sides) to make for safe seats.  There’s not that many seats that are in danger – simple numbers make it very, very hard for the Democrats to reverse the balance of power.  Thus, the Democrats, despite their polling, are going to have to continue to work to get every vote they can in the House and Senate races.

Complacency is a danger for the Dems right now.  Democratic voters are going to need to stand by their convictions on November 7 and make it to their polling places.  Don’t believe the hype.